The Enforcement Directorate (ED) carried out search operations on July 8 and 9 at four locations in Haryana. These premises belonged to Probo Media Technologies Pvt Ltd and its promoters, Sachin Subhaschandra Gupta and Ashish Garg. The ED team acted under the provisions of the Prevention of Money Laundering Act, 2002. The agency focused on allegations of illegal gambling and betting activities conducted across India through the Probo platform.
What Is Probo?
Probo runs a mobile app and website that allows users to engage in what it terms “opinion trading.” This activity enables users to trade on the potential outcome of real-world events. Users place predictions on topics from sports matches and political developments to financial trends and entertainment news.
The model mimics international platforms like Polymarket, which let users speculate on global events in real time. While companies like Polymarket operate under strict regulatory frameworks in the U.S., Probo has come under the radar in India due to a lack of legal clarity around such “prediction markets.”
ED Links Opinion Trading to Betting
The ED suspects that Probo’s so-called opinion trading functions as a cover for online betting. Investigators believe users bet money on outcomes, which then either multiply or disappear based on results. This mechanism resembles traditional gambling more than any form of legitimate market trading or polling.
By masking gambling under the guise of market participation, Probo allegedly bypassed legal scrutiny. Authorities argue that the company monetized uncertainties and user psychology in a way that fits India’s legal definition of betting. They believe Probo encouraged addictive behavior through real-time updates and frequent reward cycles.
Premises Searched in Gurugram and Jind
The ED teams conducted raids at four locations across Gurugram and Jind, the operational base of Probo and its founders. Officers seized digital evidence, bank documents, and transaction records during the operations. Investigators also interviewed key staff members to understand the company’s financial and technological structure.
Officials suspect that Probo used complex fintech layers to route and conceal earnings. These earnings allegedly flowed through third-party accounts and wallets to create distance between the platform and illegal transactions.
Promoters Under Investigation
Sachin Subhaschandra Gupta and Ashish Garg, the founders of Probo, now face intense scrutiny. ED believes both individuals developed the app and designed its business model to avoid gambling laws while profiting from bets placed on unpredictable events.
According to ED sources, Gupta and Garg attracted massive user engagement by offering cash-based rewards for correct predictions. Users earned monetary returns directly linked to the outcome of events, turning the app into a betting-like experience.
Investigators believe the duo worked closely with tech and marketing teams to build a psychologically persuasive system. Features like countdown timers, instant results, push notifications, and daily challenges likely increased user retention and, consequently, the volume of bets.
Growing Popularity Sparked Alarm
Probo’s rapid growth drew the attention of regulators and law enforcement agencies. The app gained popularity among young users who began treating it as a quick way to make money. The ED claims Probo gamified uncertainty in a manner that normalized gambling behavior.
In rural and semi-urban areas, users reportedly used UPI apps and e-wallets to deposit money and participate in events with titles like “Will India win today’s match?” or “Will petrol prices increase tomorrow?” Since most events resolved within a few hours or days, the platform encouraged short-term engagement and frequent transactions.
Legal Grey Area in India
India still lacks a comprehensive legal framework for prediction markets. While the Public Gambling Act, 1867 prohibits games of chance, the courts have allowed games of skill in certain formats. Probo claims its platform operates within legal limits because it offers a marketplace for opinions and not gambling.
However, legal experts point out that betting involves staking money on uncertain outcomes, and if financial gain depends purely on event results, then the platform may fall under gambling laws.
Several state governments have already banned online gambling apps. States like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana introduced stricter laws to prevent gambling addiction and financial fraud. If Probo operated in those regions, it might have violated state-specific laws in addition to national regulations.
How Probo Operates
Users create an account on the Probo app or website and browse questions like:
- “Will Bitcoin cross $70,000 this week?”
- “Will a certain actor win an award?”
- “Will a political party form the government in a specific state?”
For each event, users can choose “Yes” or “No” and stake money based on their belief. If their prediction proves correct, they earn returns that resemble betting profits. Probo uses dynamic pricing models that adjust payouts based on the volume of trades and market sentiment.
This setup mimics a binary options market, where users make yes/no bets on market conditions. The legal status of such platforms remains murky in India, giving regulators a valid reason to step in.
ED Focuses on Financial Trails
During the raids, ED officials examined financial trails, payment gateways, and user transaction histories. They aim to determine whether the company laundered money by masking gambling revenues as legitimate earnings. Probo’s use of intermediaries, including digital wallets and white-label banking services, may complicate the investigation.
The ED has also contacted payment processors and digital wallet providers associated with the platform. Investigators want to understand how money entered and exited the system, and whether the company used shell entities or cross-border transfers to evade taxation and scrutiny.
Regulatory Crackdown May Follow
The Probo case signals a broader crackdown on tech-driven platforms that operate in grey zones. Authorities now treat such platforms with greater suspicion, especially when they promise quick financial rewards through speculative participation.
ED officials have already alerted state police departments and IT ministries to monitor similar platforms. Central agencies may soon propose policy recommendations to regulate or ban opinion trading platforms that mimic gambling.
Public Reactions and Industry Response
Reactions from the public remain mixed. Some users argue that Probo gave them a chance to profit from informed predictions. Others claim they suffered financial losses due to the addictive nature of the app.
Industry bodies representing tech startups have urged the government to introduce clear regulations. They argue that innovation should not suffer because of a few bad actors. At the same time, they recognize the need for oversight when platforms involve real money transactions.
What Happens Next?
The ED will now analyze seized data, evaluate financial documents, and potentially summon the founders for questioning. If the agency finds evidence of money laundering, it may attach company assets, freeze accounts, or file charges under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA).
The case also opens a wider conversation about the future of prediction markets in India. While they offer exciting potential for data gathering, public sentiment tracking, and even political forecasting, they must operate transparently and legally.
Conclusion
Probo now stands at a crossroads. It faces legal and public scrutiny over its business model, operations, and financial integrity. The ED raids have sent a clear message: India’s regulatory agencies will not tolerate any activity that blurs the line between innovation and illegality. As the investigation progresses, the future of opinion trading platforms in India hangs in the balance.
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